Crypto market state today: cycle and risk

Q: What is the «median risk of 22 assets»?

It is the simple, unweighted median of the ABYSS Risk (0–1) across the 22 assets we track. It is NOT a new index or a verdict: it is a descriptive statistic summarising where most of the market sits within its own historical range. Each asset is calibrated on ITS own history, not Bitcoin's.

Q: Why the median and not the average?

Because the median is not dragged around by one or two assets at an extreme. We also publish the mean, the 10th and the 90th percentile so you can see the full shape of the distribution and judge for yourself.

Q: Why does only Bitcoin have on-chain data?

Because we compute on-chain ourselves from our own Bitcoin node, and we do not run a node for every chain. To be precise: of the eight Bitcoin readings on this screen, only three (MVRV, MVRV-Z and NUPL) come from the chain's UTXO set; Puell comes from issuance plus price, and Mayer, Pi Cycle, 2Y MA and ABYSS Risk are price multiples. The other 21 assets are read purely from price. We say so plainly instead of hiding it.

Q: Does this tell me when to buy or sell?

No. It describes where each asset sits within its historical range and what happened in similar situations in the past. It does not predict the future, it is not a signal and it is not financial advice. The decision is yours.

Q: Can I use this screen in my video or channel?

Yes. The data is ours and free to redistribute: screenshot it, cite us and use it in your content. All we ask is a link to abyssindex.com.

The five readings

MEDIAN RISK · 22 ASSETS

0.09

very low risk (floor)

▼ 0.01 · 7D

ABYSS SCORE · BTC

63/100

Value / Early accumulation

inverted scale: high = floor

ALTSEASON

43/100

Bitcoin-leaning

5 alts

FEAR & GREED

28

Fear

contrarian reading

CYCLE CONSENSUS · BTC

8/8

in the low zone

3 on-chain + 5 price-based

Breadth · does everything move together?

Breadth tells you whether this is one market or two. It is the reading no per-asset table shows.

21 / 22

low part (< 0.40)

1 / 22

mid range (0.40–0.60)

0 / 22

high part (≥ 0.60)

0.25

Dispersion (p90 − p10)

21 of 22 assets are in the low part of their range (< 0.40); the same as 30 days ago.

The higher it is, the more split the market is. Mean 0.13 · p10 0.02 · p90 0.27 · 10 assets with robust calibration and 12 with short history (~1 cycle, provisional reading).

See all 22 assets one by one →

Bitcoin: the eight cycle readings

MVRV, MVRV-Z and NUPL come from our own copy of the chain (the node's UTXO set). Puell comes from issuance plus price. Mayer, Pi Cycle, 2Y MA and ABYSS Risk are multiples computed from price alone. We compute all eight ourselves and buy none of them — that is why we can publish them for free.

MVRV

CHAIN

1.25

near cost basis

MVRV-Z

CHAIN

0.43

NUPL

CHAIN

0.20

hope / fear

Puell

ISSUANCE

0.69

undervalued

Mayer

PRICE

0.91

below 200D avg

Pi Cycle

PRICE

0.41

far from top

2Y MA

PRICE

0.76

below 2Y MA (accumulation)

ABYSS Risk

PRICE

0.21

low risk (accumulation)

Mayer, Pi Cycle, 2Y MA and ABYSS Risk derive from the same price series: they are not four independent confirmations.

⚠︎ Only Bitcoin has a chain-based reading. The other 21 assets are read purely from price (ABYSS Risk). Realized price: $52,973 · LTH 81.7%

See the Bitcoin cycle in depth →

Bitcoin ↔ alts rotation (90 days)

If money rotates into alts the index rises. It measures relative strength, not price.

Stronger than BTC

SOL+6.1%

ETH-3.6%

Weaker than BTC

ADA-16.9%

DOGE-9.8%

See the Altseason index →

Historical mirror · where this same panel stood at each turn

The same median, computed at each previous turn over the assets that traded back then. At a top we take that month's HIGHEST reading and at a bottom its LOWEST (the turn is the extreme, not the first week). The «assets» column is the honesty check: in 2013 almost none existed.

Cycle turn	When	Median risk	Assets with data
Top	Top · Dec 2013	0.80	1 / 22 · BTC only
Top	Top · Dec 2017	0.96	1 / 22 · BTC only
Top	Top · Nov 2021	0.71	17 / 22
Bottom	Bottom · Jan 2015	0.17	1 / 22 · BTC only
Bottom	Bottom · Dec 2018	0.18	1 / 22 · BTC only
Bottom	Bottom · Nov 2022	0.17	22 / 22
TODAY	24 Jul 2026	0.09	22 / 22

Each asset's calibration uses its full history, so these readings are in-sample: they are not an out-of-sample validated prediction.

Dimmed rows have so few assets with data that their «median» is, in practice, just Bitcoin. That is why the reference marks on the rule use only turns with real market coverage (≥ 5 assets): 2021 top (0.71, n=17) and 2022 bottom (0.17, n=22).

What this means — and what it does NOT

The median is NOT a new index. It is the simple, unweighted median of the ABYSS Risk across the 22 assets with data. Our single verdict is still the ABYSS Score.
Two opposite scales. The ABYSS Score is contrarian (100 = floor) and the ABYSS Risk is direct (1 = top). Here we always colour by meaning: green = low in the range, red = high.
12 of the 22 have ~1 cycle of history. Their 0–1 is provisional and it drags the median. We say it here rather than bury it in a footnote.
This does not predict. It describes position within a historical range. «Low in the range» does not mean it cannot go lower.
You may use it. The data is ours and free to redistribute: screenshot it, cite us and link to abyssindex.com.

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FAQ

What is the «median risk of 22 assets»?

It is the simple, unweighted median of the ABYSS Risk (0–1) across the 22 assets we track. It is NOT a new index or a verdict: it is a descriptive statistic summarising where most of the market sits within its own historical range. Each asset is calibrated on ITS own history, not Bitcoin's.

Why the median and not the average?

Because the median is not dragged around by one or two assets at an extreme. We also publish the mean, the 10th and the 90th percentile so you can see the full shape of the distribution and judge for yourself.

Why does only Bitcoin have on-chain data?

Because we compute on-chain ourselves from our own Bitcoin node, and we do not run a node for every chain. To be precise: of the eight Bitcoin readings on this screen, only three (MVRV, MVRV-Z and NUPL) come from the chain's UTXO set; Puell comes from issuance plus price, and Mayer, Pi Cycle, 2Y MA and ABYSS Risk are price multiples. The other 21 assets are read purely from price. We say so plainly instead of hiding it.

Does this tell me when to buy or sell?

No. It describes where each asset sits within its historical range and what happened in similar situations in the past. It does not predict the future, it is not a signal and it is not financial advice. The decision is yours.

Can I use this screen in my video or channel?

Yes. The data is ours and free to redistribute: screenshot it, cite us and use it in your content. All we ask is a link to abyssindex.com.

How all this is calculated →

CRYPTO MARKET STATE · 24 Jul 2026

LOWEST PART OF THE RANGE · MIXED BREADTH · BITCOIN-LEANING

The five readings

Breadth · does everything move together?

Bitcoin: the eight cycle readings

Bitcoin ↔ alts rotation (90 days)

Historical mirror · where this same panel stood at each turn

What this means — and what it does NOT

Share the market state

FAQ