Crypto cycle risk: 87 assets in one number (0–1)

ABYSS Risk sums up, in a single 0-to-1 number, where each asset sits in its cycle: near 0 = historic floor (accumulation zone), near 1 = top (maximum risk). Sorted from highest to lowest risk.

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Asset	Risk	Zone
MKR	0.41	moderate risk
DCR	0.39	low risk (accumulation)
BNT	0.35	low risk (accumulation)
DGB	0.31	low risk (accumulation)
ENJ	0.22	low risk (accumulation)
BTG	0.22	low risk (accumulation)
FIL	0.20	low risk (accumulation)
KCS	0.20	very low risk (floor)
BTC	0.19	very low risk (floor)
WAN	0.16	very low risk (floor)
ONT	0.14	very low risk (floor)
BNB	0.13	very low risk (floor)
ETH	0.13	very low risk (floor)
LTC	0.09	very low risk (floor)
ADA	0.09	very low risk (floor)
ANKR	0.07	very low risk (floor)
THETA	0.07	very low risk (floor)
SNX	0.07	very low risk (floor)
XEM	0.06	very low risk (floor)
RLC	0.06	very low risk (floor)
WAVES	0.05	very low risk (floor)
LSK	0.04	very low risk (floor)
QTUM	0.03	very low risk (floor)
MANA	0.02	very low risk (floor)
VET	0.02	very low risk (floor)
XDC	0.01	very low risk (floor)
XTZ	0.01	very low risk (floor)
ZIL	0.00	very low risk (floor)
XRP	0.00	very low risk (floor)
ETC	0.00	very low risk (floor)
NEO	0.00	very low risk (floor)
IOTA	0.00	very low risk (floor)
BAT	0.00	very low risk (floor)
ICX	0.00	very low risk (floor)
RVN	0.00	very low risk (floor)
SC	0.00	very low risk (floor)
ARK	0.00	very low risk (floor)
IOST	0.00	very low risk (floor)
CHZ	0.00	very low risk (floor)
LRC	0.00	very low risk (floor)
STORJ	0.00	very low risk (floor)

Each asset is calibrated on its OWN history (a shorter window the newer it is), so read each one against its own past, not as an exact cross-asset comparison. Method and (in-sample) limitations explained in the guide. How the risk is computed →

Provisional calibration (the 1.0 isn't the 2021 top)

For these assets, their most extreme reading (the 1.0) does NOT fall on the 2021 top but later: for some because they've only lived ~1 cycle (born ~2020, like SOL or DOGE); for others because their biggest stretch above the 2-year average was recent (2024-2026) despite long history (like BCH, XMR or ZEC). Their 0–1 shows where they sit within their own available range, not against a validated cycle top like BTC's. Useful as a reference, but treat it with extra caution.

Asset	Risk	Zone
ZEC	0.56	moderate risk
XMR	0.51	moderate risk
DASH	0.38	low risk (accumulation)
NEAR	0.37	low risk (accumulation)
OKB	0.29	low risk (accumulation)
TRX	0.28	low risk (accumulation)
AXS	0.27	low risk (accumulation)
VELO	0.24	low risk (accumulation)
LEO	0.24	low risk (accumulation)
LINK	0.24	low risk (accumulation)
ALGO	0.23	low risk (accumulation)
AR	0.22	low risk (accumulation)
CRV	0.20	very low risk (floor)
ICP	0.19	very low risk (floor)
RUNE	0.19	very low risk (floor)
UNI	0.19	very low risk (floor)
1INCH	0.19	very low risk (floor)
XLM	0.18	very low risk (floor)
XVG	0.17	very low risk (floor)
BCH	0.16	very low risk (floor)
AAVE	0.15	very low risk (floor)
YFI	0.14	very low risk (floor)
TRB	0.11	very low risk (floor)
SOL	0.11	very low risk (floor)
ATOM	0.11	very low risk (floor)
BAL	0.10	very low risk (floor)
CRO	0.10	very low risk (floor)
BAND	0.09	very low risk (floor)
FLOW	0.09	very low risk (floor)
SHIB	0.08	very low risk (floor)
KAVA	0.08	very low risk (floor)
EGLD	0.07	very low risk (floor)
CELO	0.07	very low risk (floor)
AVAX	0.06	very low risk (floor)
SUSHI	0.05	very low risk (floor)
HBAR	0.05	very low risk (floor)
GT	0.04	very low risk (floor)
RSR	0.03	very low risk (floor)
ROSE	0.03	very low risk (floor)
KSM	0.02	very low risk (floor)
DOT	0.00	very low risk (floor)
DOGE	0.00	very low risk (floor)
SAND	0.00	very low risk (floor)
GALA	0.00	very low risk (floor)
HNT	0.00	very low risk (floor)
SCRT	0.00	very low risk (floor)

Does it work on each asset? (point-in-time)

% of the time price was higher a year later, with risk computed at each date using only past data (no look-ahead), versus the unconditional base rate. We show 4 assets with enough history (several cycles) for a meaningful backtest; for the rest the window would cover a single cycle and the result would be noise:

Asset	Base	Low risk	High risk
BTC	69%	81%	53%
ETH	59%	80%	45%
XRP	55%	70%	6%
ADA	47%	54%	8%

Across all four, low risk beat the base rate and high risk underperformed it, and the pattern holds point-in-time (no look-ahead). Robust for BTC/ETH (2–3 cycles); indicative for XRP/ADA (short history).

Overlapping daily windows; a secular bull market lifts the base rate, so read the DIFFERENCE between columns, not the absolute. Newer assets have less history: for XRP and ADA the high-risk bucket covers essentially a single top, so those figures are indicative. Historical context, not a promise.

Frequently asked questions

What is the 0–1 cycle risk?

It's an indicator that normalizes to a 0-to-1 range how expensive or cheap an asset is within its cycle, from how far price sits from its 2-year moving average, scaled by time. Near 1 has historically coincided with tops; near 0, with bottoms.

Can I compare BTC's risk to an altcoin's?

With caution. Each asset is normalized on its own history, so a 0.7 on two assets doesn't mean exactly the same thing if one has many more cycles than the other. Use it to read each asset against its own past.

Where does the data come from?

We compute them ourselves from each asset's price (2-year moving average). The formula and constants are published, and the data is freely redistributable.

See the full dashboard → Cycle indicators

Computed by ABYSS Index from reference price — freely redistributable. For educational purposes only. Not financial advice.