ABYSS Index
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Crypto cycle risk: BTC, ETH, XRP and ADA (0–1)

ABYSS Risk sums up, in a single 0-to-1 number, where each asset sits in its cycle: near 0 = historic floor (opportunity), near 1 = top (maximum risk). Here they are, sorted from highest to lowest risk.

AssetRiskZone
BTC0.17very low risk (floor)
ETH0.06very low risk (floor)
ADA0.05very low risk (floor)
XRP0.02very low risk (floor)

Each asset is calibrated on its OWN history (a shorter window the newer it is), so read each one against its own past, not as an exact cross-asset comparison. Method and (in-sample) limitations explained in the guide. How the risk is computed →

Does it work on each asset? Backtest

We bucketed each asset's full history by risk level and measured the return one year later. Low risk (below 0.4) vs high risk (0.6 or more):

AssetLow risk (<0.4)High risk (≥0.6)
BTC+119% · 92% up 1y−9% · 44% up 1y
ETH+71% · 89% up 1y−36% · 31% up 1y
XRP+72% · 82% up 1y−39% · 5% up 1y
ADA+25% · 68% up 1y−60% · 34% up 1y

Across all four, buying at low risk beat buying at high risk — often by 100+ points and with far higher win rates. (Bitcoin is the most resilient; altcoins punish high risk harder.)

Median 1-year return, overlapping daily windows; the 0–1 scale is in-sample and newer assets have less history. Historical context, not a promise.

Frequently asked questions

What is the 0–1 cycle risk?

It's an indicator that normalizes to a 0-to-1 range how expensive or cheap an asset is within its cycle, from how far price sits from its 2-year moving average, scaled by time. Near 1 has historically coincided with tops; near 0, with bottoms.

Can I compare BTC's risk to an altcoin's?

With caution. Each asset is normalized on its own history, so a 0.7 on two assets doesn't mean exactly the same thing if one has many more cycles than the other. Use it to read each asset against its own past.

Where does the data come from?

We compute them ourselves from each asset's price (2-year moving average). The formula and constants are published, and the data is freely redistributable.

See the full dashboard → Cycle indicators

Computed by ABYSS Index from reference price — freely redistributable. For educational purposes only. Not financial advice.