ABYSS Index
The contrarian index that measures how close the market floor is · transparent, backtested since 2018
📈 Backtested since 2018🔍 Transparent & auditable🪙 Risk for 87 assets⛓️ Own on-chain (MVRV)🤖 AI copilot
ABYSS Index · BTCOur Bitcoin cycle thermometer (0-100). It's contrarian: high (green)=floor/accumulation; low (red)=euphoria/top. Blends 6 categories into one number. Educational, not a signal.
42
/100
Neutral / Transition
Weekly Δ ▲ +4
0 · TopNeutralFloor · 100
Index components
SentimentS
Fear & Greed
The Score's sentiment category. Uses the Fear & Greed index (alternative.me). Contrarian: extreme fear lifts the score (green=floor); extreme greed lowers it (red=top).
26 /100
F&G 74 · Greed · weight 18%
MomentumM
Weekly RSI
The Score's momentum category. Reads BTC's weekly price RSI. Contrarian: oversold lifts the score (green=floor); overbought lowers it (red=top).
33 /100
RSI 14w: 60.7 · weight 18%
TrendT
Distance to EMA200
The Score's trend category. Measures price's distance from its weekly EMA200. Well below lifts the score (green=floor); stretched far above lowers it (red=top).
72 /100
+20.5% vs EMA200 · weight 14%
DerivativesD
Perp funding
The Score's derivatives category. Reads perpetual-futures funding. High funding=crowded longs, lowers the score (red=top); low/negative funding raises it (green=floor).
28 /100
Funding: 0.0058% · weight 13%
MacroM
M2 liquidity (US)
The Score's macro category. Blends US M2 liquidity and the dollar's strength (FRED data). More liquidity and a weak dollar raise the score (green); a strong dollar lowers it (red).
38 /100
M2 YoY: 5.66% · weight 13%
MacroM
Dollar (USD Index)
The Score's macro category. Blends US M2 liquidity and the dollar's strength (FRED data). More liquidity and a weak dollar raise the score (green); a strong dollar lowers it (red).
18 /100
USD 1m: +1.59% · weight 9%
On-chainO
MVRV (valuation)
The Score's on-chain category. Uses Bitcoin's MVRV computed from our own node. Low/undervalued MVRV raises the score (green=floor); high/overvalued MVRV lowers it (red=top).
70 /100
MVRV: 1.56 · weight 15%
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How it works
1
We gather 6 categories
Sentiment, momentum, trend, derivatives, macro and network — from free or self-computed sources.
2
We blend them into one number
Each signal is normalized to 0-100 and weighted with a public, versioned formula.
3
You read it contrarian
High (green) = near the floor, accumulation zone. Low (red) = near the top, distribution / late cycle.
Whole market · ABYSS Score
ABYSS AltseasonMeasures whether alts are beating Bitcoin (0-100, our own data): the alt basket's 90-day performance versus BTC. High (purple)=altseason; low (amber)=Bitcoin season; ~50=balanced.
59/100
Alt-leaning
4/5 alts beating BTC (90d)
Bitcoin seasonAltseason
ETH73
ADA68
SOL62
XRP52
DOGE42
Each alt's 90-day performance vs BTC (how much its ALT/BTC ratio rose or fell), mapped to 0-100 (50 = same as BTC). The basket average is the index: above 50 = alts beating BTC. Our own signal.
On-chain · our own datanode
MVRV
Market cap ÷ realized cap (coins' average cost). On-chain, from our own node. Below 1 (green)=market at a loss/floor; well above (red)=extreme profit/top.
1.56
mid valuation
MVRV-Z
MVRV expressed in standard deviations from its own history. On-chain, from our node. Very low (green)=historic bottom; above ~7 (red)=historic top.
0.97
undervalued
NUPL
The whole market's unrealized profit/loss, on-chain from our node. Negative (green)=capitulation/floor; toward 1 (red)=euphoria/top. Reflects market psychology.
0.36
optimism
Realized price
$53,652
market cost basis
Long-term holder supply: 80% (unmoved ≥6 months)
<1m1-3m3-6m6-12m1-2y2-5y5y+
ABYSS Risk · cycle risk (0–1)
0.31
low risk (accumulation)
Cycle multiples
Mayer Multiple
BTC price ÷ its 200-day moving average (price-based). Gauges cheap vs expensive against its trend. <0.8 (green)=undervalued; the 2.4 line (red) has marked tops.
1.17
fair value
Puell Multiple
USD value of BTC's daily issuance ÷ its 365-day average (issuance + price). Gauges miner stress. <0.5 (green)=capitulation/floor; >4 (red)=extreme revenue/top.
1.16
neutral
Pi Cycle Top
Compares the 111-day average with twice the 350-day (price), shown as their ratio. Near 1 (red) they cross and it flagged the 2013/17/21 tops; low (green)=top far off.
0.44
far from top
2Y MA Multiplier
BTC price versus its 2-year moving average and that average ×5 (price). <1 (green)=below the 2-year MA (historic floors); above ×5 (red)=overbought (tops).
0.94
below 2Y MA (accumulation)
Guides:ABYSS RiskMVRVMVRV-ZMayerPuellNUPLPi Cycle2Y MA
Popular questions:When to sell BTC?When to buy BTC?Is BTC overvalued?
Live from our own Bitcoin node · block #969,369 · 2026-10-01
MVRV / NUPL / realized cap computed by us — not resold from a third party. Realized cap = Σ(each coin × its price when last moved).
Cycle history · Mayer & Puell
Mayer Multiple · 1.17
Puell Multiple · 1.16
Weekly points, computed by us from price + emission — freely redistributable. Full cycle analysis →
How to read it
80–100Strong accumulation
60–80Value / Early accumulation
40–60Neutral / Transition
20–40Greed / Late cycle
0–20Euphoria / Distribution
Contrarian scale: high = market floor / accumulation, low = top / distribution.
ABYSS vs. Fear & Greed
| Fear & Greed | ABYSS | |
|---|---|---|
| Focus | Sentiment | 6 categories |
| Per asset | BTC-wide | 6 assets |
| Macro (M2, USD) | — | ✓ |
| Own on-chain valuation (MVRV) | — | ✓ BTC |
| Open, versioned formula | — | ✓ |
| Public backtest (since 2018) | — | ✓ |
| Widget + public API | — | ✓ |
Index history (weekly, since 2018)
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