When to sell Bitcoin?
There's no magic answer, but there is a framework: people tend to sell near cycle TOPS. The ABYSS Risk distills into a single 0–1 number how close Bitcoin is to its historic top. The higher it is, the closer it has historically been to the end of the bull cycle.
Today, by cycle risk, is NOT a distribution zone: Bitcoin sits closer to the low part of its range than the high.
8 of 8 cycle indicators in the low (green) zone, 0 in the high (red) zone.
At the three major tops (2013, 2017 and April 2021) risk reached the high zone (≥0.8) before the 70-85% drawdowns. At the bottoms (2015, 2018-19, 2022) it fell below 0.2. The table below maps each zone to what it has historically meant. Note: the scale is in-sample (it uses the full history) and the November 2021 peak came in softer due to the cycle's diminishing returns — so watch several indicators together, not just one.
The framework: cycle risk zones
| Zone | What it has meant (historical) | Historical phase |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.2 Very low risk ◄ today | Historic cycle floor: maximum opportunity, minimum risk. This is where BTC sat at the major bottoms (2015, 2018-19, 2022). | Historic floor |
| 0.2–0.4 Low risk | Lower part of the cycle. Historically, accumulating in this zone and waiting a year worked out most of the time. | Lower cycle zone |
| 0.4–0.6 Medium risk | Mid-cycle phase. Neither floor nor top: the reading is neutral, worth watching several indicators. | Mid phase |
| 0.6–0.8 High risk | Upper part of the cycle. Historically the zone where the market starts to overheat and forward 1-year returns fall. | High zone (overheating) |
| 0.8–1.0 Very high risk | Near the historic top. In 2013, 2017 and April 2021 risk reached this zone before the big drawdowns. | Historic top |
Frequently asked questions
At what risk level is the top usually?
Historically the 2013, 2017 and April 2021 tops sat at or above 0.8. It's not a guarantee: it's where risk has been at the major past tops.
Does it work for altcoins?
Yes, the same 0–1 Risk exists for 22 assets (BTC and the major altcoins: ETH, BNB, SOL, XRP, ADA, DOGE, AVAX, LINK, DOT, LTC…), each calibrated on its own history. See them on the risk page.
Is this a buy or sell recommendation?
No. ABYSS Index provides information and historical context for educational purposes; it is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
📩 Get the weekly cycle read
We'll only email you the cycle report and product news · no spam · privacy
See the risk of all 87 assets →See all cycle indicators →How the ABYSS Risk is computed →