Is Bitcoin at a top or bottom? Live cycle indicators
An at-a-glance read of where Bitcoin sits in its cycle, combining our composite index (ABYSS Score) with the on-chain and cycle indicators we compute ourselves: MVRV, MVRV-Z and NUPL from our own Bitcoin node, and the Mayer Multiple, Puell Multiple, Pi Cycle Top and 2-Year MA Multiplier from price + issuance. Green = accumulation zone (closer to the floor); red = distribution (closer to the top).
Today's verdict
67/100
Value / Early accumulation
8 of 8 cycle indicators in a low zone.
Live cycle indicators
Risk
0.17
very low risk (floor)
MVRV
1.10
near cost basis
MVRV-Z
0.18
undervalued
Mayer
0.78
deep value
Puell
0.64
undervalued
NUPL
0.09
hope / fear
Pi Cycle
0.40
far from top
2Y MA
0.67
below 2Y MA (accumulation)
Cycle history
ABYSS Risk (0–1)
Mayer Multiple
Puell Multiple
Pi Cycle Top
2-Year MA Multiplier
Cycle turning points
How these indicators behaved at the major past tops and bottoms, using the values from our own historical series. At tops they jumped into the red zone; at bottoms they fell into the green zone.
Turning point
Mayer
Puell
Pi Cycle
2Y MA
Top · Dec 2013
5.65
8.08
0.99
15.83
Top · Dec 2017
3.10
4.65
0.97
7.94
Top · Apr 2021
2.02
2.75
0.99
4.09
Bottom · Jan 2015
0.70
0.62
0.36
0.90
Bottom · Dec 2018
0.57
0.39
0.38
0.66
Bottom · Nov 2022
0.83
0.66
0.32
0.53
In April 2021 (local top) Mayer reached ~2.0 and Pi Cycle fired (0.99); the November 2021 all-time high came with softer multiples —the cycle's diminishing returns—, a reminder of why it pays to watch several indicators at once.
There's no single answer, but cycle indicators give context: MVRV compares price to the market's average cost, the Mayer Multiple to its 200-day average, and Puell to miner revenue. When most are in a low (green) zone it has historically been an accumulation context; in a high (red) zone, distribution. The live verdict is above.
Which indicator is best for spotting tops and bottoms?
None on its own. That's why we combine several: MVRV-Z has marked historic tops at high extremes (2017, 2021) and Puell its strongest tops in 2013 and 2017; on the floor side, Puell below 0.5 has coincided with cycle lows (2015, 2018-19, 2022). Looking at them together reduces false signals.
Have these indicators been right in past cycles?
At the major tops (2013, 2017 and the April 2021 local top) the price multiples jumped into the red zone, and at bottoms (2015, 2018-19 and 2022) they fell into the green zone — you'll find the exact values in the “Cycle turning points” table above. Important nuance: the November 2021 all-time high came with softer readings (the cycle's diminishing returns), a reminder to watch several indicators together rather than any single one.
Where does this data come from?
We compute them ourselves: MVRV, MVRV-Z, NUPL and realized price from our own Bitcoin node (not resold from third parties); Mayer and Puell from price + issuance. That's why they're freely redistributable — you can use them in your videos, tweets or site.
How often does it update?
The index and price refresh continuously; our own on-chain metrics are recomputed daily from the node. The page always shows the latest available value with its date.
Is this a buy or sell recommendation?
No. It's educational information about market state, not financial advice. The zones describe historical contexts and do not guarantee future results.
