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Is Bitcoin at a top or bottom? Live cycle indicators

An at-a-glance read of where Bitcoin sits in its cycle, combining our composite index (ABYSS Score) with the on-chain and cycle indicators we compute ourselves: MVRV, MVRV-Z and NUPL from our own Bitcoin node, and the Mayer Multiple, Pi Cycle Top and 2-Year MA Multiplier from price, and the Puell Multiple from issuance plus price. Green = accumulation zone (closer to the floor); red = distribution (closer to the top).

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Today's verdict
74/100
Value / Early accumulation

8 of 8 cycle indicators in green (low/neutral zone).

Live cycle indicators

Risk
BTC cycle risk from 0 to 1, computed by us from price (distance to its 2-year average). DIRECT scale: near 0 (green)=floor; near 1 (red)=top. Educational, not a signal.
0.19
very low risk (floor)
MVRV
Market cap ÷ realized cap (coins' average cost). On-chain, from our own node. Below 1 (green)=market at a loss/floor; well above (red)=extreme profit/top.
1.20
near cost basis
MVRV-Z
MVRV expressed in standard deviations from its own history. On-chain, from our node. Very low (green)=historic bottom; above ~7 (red)=historic top.
0.34
undervalued
Mayer
BTC price ÷ its 200-day moving average (price-based). Gauges cheap vs expensive against its trend. <0.8 (green)=undervalued; the 2.4 line (red) has marked tops.
0.91
below 200D avg
Puell
USD value of BTC's daily issuance ÷ its 365-day average (issuance + price). Gauges miner stress. <0.5 (green)=capitulation/floor; >4 (red)=extreme revenue/top.
0.84
undervalued
NUPL
The whole market's unrealized profit/loss, on-chain from our node. Negative (green)=capitulation/floor; toward 1 (red)=euphoria/top. Reflects market psychology.
0.16
hope / fear
Pi Cycle
Compares the 111-day average with twice the 350-day (price), shown as their ratio. Near 1 (red) they cross and it flagged the 2013/17/21 tops; low (green)=top far off.
0.41
far from top
2Y MA
BTC price versus its 2-year moving average and that average ×5 (price). <1 (green)=below the 2-year MA (historic floors); above ×5 (red)=overbought (tops).
0.72
below 2Y MA (accumulation)

Cycle history

ABYSS Risk (0–1)
00.20.40.60.810.520122016201920232026Now ▾▼'13▼'17▼'21▲'15▲'18▲'22
Mayer Multiple
0.51252.420112015201920222026Now ▾▼'13▼'17▼'21▲'15▲'18▲'22
Puell Multiple
0.51254.020112015201920222026Now ▾▼'13▼'17▼'21▲'15▲'18▲'22
Pi Cycle Top
0.511.0 · top20112015201920222026Now ▾▼'13▼'17▼'21▲'15▲'18▲'22
2-Year MA Multiplier
0.512510×520122016201920232026Now ▾▼'13▼'17▼'21▲'15▲'18▲'22

Cycle turning points

How these indicators behaved at the major past tops and bottoms, using the values from our own historical series. At tops they jumped into the red zone; at bottoms they fell into the green zone.

Turning pointMayerPuellPi Cycle2Y MA
Top · Dec 20135.658.080.9915.83
Top · Dec 20173.104.650.977.94
Top · Nov 20211.391.480.562.46
Bottom · Jan 20150.700.620.360.90
Bottom · Dec 20180.570.390.380.66
Bottom · Nov 20220.830.660.320.53

In April 2021 (local top) Mayer reached ~2.0 and Pi Cycle fired (0.99); the November 2021 all-time high came with softer multiples —the cycle's diminishing returns—, a reminder of why it pays to watch several indicators at once.

Indicator guides

ABYSS Risk · Mayer Multiple · Puell Multiple · MVRV · MVRV-Z · NUPL · Pi Cycle Top · 2-Year MA Multiplier

Frequently asked questions

Is Bitcoin expensive or cheap right now?

There's no single answer, but cycle indicators give context: MVRV compares price to the market's average cost, the Mayer Multiple to its 200-day average, and Puell to miner revenue. When most are in a low (green) zone it has historically been an accumulation context; in a high (red) zone, distribution. The live verdict is above.

Which indicator is best for spotting tops and bottoms?

None on its own. That's why we combine several: MVRV-Z has marked historic tops at high extremes (2017, 2021) and Puell its strongest tops in 2013 and 2017; on the floor side, Puell below 0.5 has coincided with cycle lows (2015, 2018-19, 2022). Looking at them together reduces false signals.

Have these indicators been right in past cycles?

At the major tops (2013, 2017 and the April 2021 local top) the price multiples jumped into the red zone, and at bottoms (2015, 2018-19 and 2022) they fell into the green zone — you'll find the exact values in the “Cycle turning points” table above. Important nuance: the November 2021 all-time high came with softer readings (the cycle's diminishing returns), a reminder to watch several indicators together rather than any single one.

Where does this data come from?

We compute them ourselves: MVRV, MVRV-Z, NUPL and realized price from our own Bitcoin node (not resold from third parties); Mayer, Pi Cycle and 2Y MA from price; Puell from issuance + price. That's why they're freely redistributable — you can use them in your videos, tweets or site.

How often does it update?

The index and price refresh continuously; our own on-chain metrics are recomputed daily from the node. The page always shows the latest available value with its date.

Is this a buy or sell recommendation?

No. It's educational information about market state, not financial advice. The zones describe historical contexts and do not guarantee future results.

See the full dashboard → Methodology

Computed by ABYSS Index from our own Bitcoin node and reference price — freely redistributable. For educational purposes only. Not financial advice.

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