ABYSS Risk: Bitcoin's cycle risk (0–1)

ABYSS Risk sums up, in a single 0-to-1 number, how expensive or cheap Bitcoin is within its cycle. It starts from how far price sits from its 2-year moving average and scales that by elapsed time to offset each cycle's diminishing returns; the result is mapped to a 0–1 range. It's the idea of a 0–1 risk metric, a format popularized in crypto cycle analysis, but computed by us with the formula and constants published. Near 0 = historic floor (opportunity); near 1 = top (maximum risk).

Formula: 0–1 min/max-normalized: ln(price ÷ 2-year MA) × (days since 2012-08-16)^0.395.

Method & caveat: Reading the history: the 0–1 scale is calibrated on the min and max of the whole 2010–2026 series, so a past point is drawn using information from after that date, and the extremes —the 2017 top (max) and the 2022 bottom (min)— define the 1 and the 0 by construction. It's a fit over the full history, not a signal you'd have seen identically in real time, and it isn't stationary (for the same valuation, risk tends to drift up over the years). Constants: exponent 0.395; min −22.75; max 45.51; reference 2012-08-16.

How to read it

Below 0.2 risk is very low (it coincided with the 2015, 2018-19 and 2022 bottoms); 0.4 to 0.6 is the mid phase; above 0.6 risk is high. In hindsight the 2013, 2017 and April 2021 tops all sat above 0.8; the November 2021 all-time high came in softer (below 0.7), a reminder of the cycle's diminishing returns.

At past tops and bottoms

Where the calibrated 0–1 scale places each major turning point. Note that the 2017 top and 2022 bottom define the scale's ends by construction (see the caveat above); the other rows are out-of-anchor.

See all indicators side by side in the cycle turning points table.

See the full dashboard → Cycle overviewMethodology

Computed by ABYSS Index from our own Bitcoin node and reference price — freely redistributable. For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Español