Is Bitcoin overvalued right now?
“Expensive” or “cheap” only makes sense against a reference. Here the reference is Bitcoin's own history: the ABYSS Risk (0–1) and multiples like the Mayer (price vs its 200-day average) or MVRV (price vs the market's average cost) tell you whether BTC trades above or below its historical normal.
By cycle risk, BTC is cheap relative to its own history: close to the floor.
8 of 8 cycle indicators in the low (green) zone, 0 in the high (red) zone.
No single indicator is the truth. That's why we show below how many of our 8 cycle indicators are in a low zone today (green = cheap) versus a high zone (red = expensive), alongside the ABYSS Risk read. When most agree, the signal is more reliable.
The framework: cycle risk zones
| Zone | What it has meant (historical) | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.2 Very low risk ◄ today | Historic cycle floor: maximum opportunity, minimum risk. This is where BTC sat at the major bottoms (2015, 2018-19, 2022). | Accumulation |
| 0.2–0.4 Low risk | Lower part of the cycle. Historically, buying here and waiting a year worked out most of the time. | Accumulate / hold |
| 0.4–0.6 Medium risk | Mid-cycle phase. Neither floor nor top: the signal is neutral, worth watching several indicators. | Neutral |
| 0.6–0.8 High risk | Upper part of the cycle. Historically the zone where the market starts to overheat and forward 1-year returns fall. | Reduce / take profit |
| 0.8–1.0 Very high risk | Near the historic top. In 2013, 2017 and April 2021 risk reached this zone before the big drawdowns. | Distribution / maximum caution |
Frequently asked questions
How do you measure whether Bitcoin is expensive?
By comparing price to references from its own history: its 200-day average (Mayer), its on-chain average cost (MVRV) or its 0–1 position in the cycle (ABYSS Risk). Above normal = expensive; below = cheap.
Is this a buy or sell recommendation?
No. ABYSS Index provides information and historical context for educational purposes; it is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
See the risk of all 10 assets →See all cycle indicators →How the ABYSS Risk is computed →