What ABYSS read at every top and bottom
The best proof of a cycle indicator isn't a promise — it's the record. Here's what the ABYSS Risk (0–1) read at the REAL turns of the Bitcoin market, taken from our own series: high near tops, low near bottoms.
BTC cycle risk (0–1) at the real market turns, taken from OUR own historical series.
Near tops risk was high; near bottoms, low. In-sample scale (uses the full history); read it alongside other indicators, not as a crystal ball.
The live public log (grows on its own) 49 days
And going forward, the most honest proof of all: every day we save, DATED, the ABYSS Score, zone and price of Bitcoin — and they are never edited. This public log started on 30 Jun 2026. Over time it's the tamper-proof record of what ABYSS read and what happened next. It starts short; it grows every day.
| Date | Score | Zone | BTC price | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Aug 2026 | 77 | Value / Early accumulation | $64,168 | today |
| 17 Aug 2026 | 79 | Value / Early accumulation | $63,460 | +1.1% |
| 16 Aug 2026 | 81 | Strong accumulation | $63,002 | +1.9% |
| 15 Aug 2026 | 74 | Value / Early accumulation | $63,020 | +1.8% |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 69 | Value / Early accumulation | $63,329 | +1.3% |
| 13 Aug 2026 | 74 | Value / Early accumulation | $63,824 | +0.5% |
| 12 Aug 2026 | 72 | Value / Early accumulation | $63,728 | +0.7% |
| 11 Aug 2026 | 74 | Value / Early accumulation | $63,951 | +0.3% |
| 10 Aug 2026 | 82 | Strong accumulation | $65,111 | -1.4% |
| 9 Aug 2026 | 83 | Strong accumulation | $64,754 | -0.9% |
| 8 Aug 2026 | 83 | Strong accumulation | $64,961 | -1.2% |
| 7 Aug 2026 | 79 | Value / Early accumulation | $64,283 | -0.2% |
| 6 Aug 2026 | 75 | Value / Early accumulation | $64,804 | -1.0% |
| 5 Aug 2026 | 85 | Strong accumulation | $64,288 | -0.2% |
| 4 Aug 2026 | 76 | Value / Early accumulation | $64,218 | -0.1% |
| 3 Aug 2026 | 70 | Value / Early accumulation | $62,768 | +2.2% |
| 2 Aug 2026 | 73 | Value / Early accumulation | $63,396 | +1.2% |
| 1 Aug 2026 | 74 | Value / Early accumulation | $63,016 | +1.8% |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 73 | Value / Early accumulation | $64,305 | -0.2% |
| 30 Jul 2026 | 68 | Value / Early accumulation | $63,953 | +0.3% |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 73 | Value / Early accumulation | $63,954 | +0.3% |
| 28 Jul 2026 | 84 | Strong accumulation | $63,378 | +1.2% |
| 27 Jul 2026 | 72 | Value / Early accumulation | $65,410 | -1.9% |
| 26 Jul 2026 | 76 | Value / Early accumulation | $64,359 | -0.3% |
| 25 Jul 2026 | 69 | Value / Early accumulation | $63,968 | +0.3% |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 71 | Value / Early accumulation | $65,246 | -1.7% |
| 23 Jul 2026 | 77 | Value / Early accumulation | $65,681 | -2.3% |
| 22 Jul 2026 | 61 | Value / Early accumulation | $65,885 | -2.6% |
| 21 Jul 2026 | 67 | Value / Early accumulation | $65,879 | -2.6% |
| 20 Jul 2026 | 68 | Value / Early accumulation | $63,836 | +0.5% |
| 19 Jul 2026 | 65 | Value / Early accumulation | $64,674 | -0.8% |
| 18 Jul 2026 | 71 | Value / Early accumulation | $63,935 | +0.4% |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 67 | Value / Early accumulation | $62,865 | +2.1% |
| 16 Jul 2026 | 68 | Value / Early accumulation | $64,824 | -1.0% |
| 15 Jul 2026 | 64 | Value / Early accumulation | $64,923 | -1.2% |
| 14 Jul 2026 | 71 | Value / Early accumulation | $62,545 | +2.6% |
| 13 Jul 2026 | 63 | Value / Early accumulation | $62,761 | +2.2% |
| 12 Jul 2026 | 64 | Value / Early accumulation | $63,710 | +0.7% |
| 11 Jul 2026 | 64 | Value / Early accumulation | $64,155 | +0.0% |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 62 | Value / Early accumulation | $63,894 | +0.4% |
| 9 Jul 2026 | 66 | Value / Early accumulation | $62,460 | +2.7% |
| 8 Jul 2026 | 66 | Value / Early accumulation | $62,540 | +2.6% |
| 7 Jul 2026 | 63 | Value / Early accumulation | $63,050 | +1.8% |
| 6 Jul 2026 | 63 | Value / Early accumulation | $62,994 | +1.9% |
| 4 Jul 2026 | 71 | Value / Early accumulation | $62,422 | +2.8% |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 64 | Value / Early accumulation | $61,635 | +4.1% |
| 2 Jul 2026 | 66 | Value / Early accumulation | $60,501 | +6.1% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | 66 | Value / Early accumulation | $58,651 | +9.4% |
| 30 Jun 2026 | 61 | Value / Early accumulation | $58,419 | +9.8% |
How to read it (honestly)
The ABYSS Risk normalizes (0–1) price's distance to its long moving average: by construction it's high when price stretches far to the upside (tops) and low when depressed (bottoms). The scale is in-sample (it uses the full history), so this shows historical consistency, NOT a prediction. The November 2021 top came in softer due to the cycle's diminishing returns. Read it alongside other indicators, never as a crystal ball.
See the risk of all 87 assets →How the ABYSS Risk is computed →Compare it with ITC, Glassnode and more →